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Randomness Explains Flat Tire Anecdotes Perfectly Well

Figure 2. First five simulated periods of 30 years.

Flat tires are random events. However, it seems that the human mind expects random events to be more regular than they actually are. This intuition on randomness might lead to the feeling that your own experience is somehow unexpected or strange, with anecdotes such as “my uncle seems to never have any flats, but my sister had three in the last year alone”. This is related…

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Submitted on 22 January 2017